Yesterday I wrote a diary suggesting that New Hampshire was breaking towards Hillary. But as any native Northern New Englander knows, polls are like the weather: wait a minute and they will change.
As I documented yesterday, polling was showing a pronounced movement to Clinton. BUT, here are the last 3 polls in New Hampshire:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/table
s/live/2007-12-20-nhpoll.htm?loc=interst
itialskip
USA Today: Clinton 32, Obama 32, Edwards 18
American Res. Group, 12/16 - 12/19, Clinton 38 Obama 24 Edwards 15
Rasmussen 12/18 Clinton 31 Obama 28 Edwards 18
To avoid being accused of Cherry Picking polls, the next most recent poll is UNH:
UNH, Dec 13-17, Clinton 38, Obama 26, Edwards 14
So of the four most recent polls, two show a close or tied race, and two show a 12 - 14 point lead. These polls are NOT reconcilable. UNH is a well respected pollster, but ARG is, well ARG. On the other side is Gallup and Rassmussen.
For Edwards supporters the USATODAY and Rassmussen polls are great news. They show Edwards within striking distance after an Iowa win. Conversely, the ARG and UNH polls show Edwards down by 20 plus.
At this point you can read these polls how ever you want. If New Hampshire is indeed really tied, and if Hillary is closer to 30 than the high 30's, she is in big trouble.
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