Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling

by fladem, Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:28:27 PM EST

A great poet once wrote:


THEY must to keep their certainty accuse
All that are different of a base intent;
Pull down established honour; hawk for news
Whatever their loose fantasy invent

So what are the wages of  circular firing squads?

I know something about primary history.  On Friday I will post a review of National Polling from 1972 to 2004 at Openleft.  Here is one fact I have found in my work:

No one with an approval rating under 40 at this point in the cycle has ever won a two way race.

Here are the favorability numbers for Hillary Clinton in tonight's NBC Poll:
37 positive 48 negative

This is an 8 point drop in her rating in just 2 weeks.  Among Whites her rating is 34 positive 48 negative.

She can't win with these numbers.

Not that the picture is significantly better for Obama. While the NBC poll has reasonably good news for him (his favorability rating is 49-32 positive), the latest round of SUSA polling that Jerome quotes on the front page is terrible for him.  He trails in Missouri by a wide margin and runs behind McCain in Ohio by 7.

Here is the bottom line: both of the Democrats at this point are badly wounded.  They face an opponent with positives higher than negatives (45-25)

If we continue on our current path of self-destructiveness, we are going to lose.

Period.  




Tags: Polling (all tags)

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Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

With numbers like that you would think she would be buried in a head to head match up with Obama and Mccain .

Thats not the case.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:32:29 PM EST

Vis a Vis Obama (none / 0)

she is tied in part because Obama is wounded too.

She trails McCain by 2, but is only at 44.  One of the central questions I have always had about Clinton is how does she expand her support.  She is about as well known as any American Politician and yet cannot get over 45.  

There is bad news to go around: the poll details reaction to Obama's speech: which isn't overly positive.  


by fladem on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vis a Vis Obama (none / 0)

Winning elections is not a matter of being the fastest but is a matter of being faster. We can work on McCain's negative ratings. There is enough scope to get that number high:-)


by Sandeep on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:57:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

Come on this was a pretty fair diary.  Despite who you support you have to see the merits in the diarists argument?  We have to start coming together and beating down McCain or we are in trouble.  I am a huge Obama supporter who is at the point where he just wants this thing to end so we can focus on electing a DEMOCRAT into office no matter who that ends up being.


by Xris on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:51:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

I don't think what I said is particularly controversial , just an observation I thought was worthy of mentioning.

Is it not a bit surprising to you that she would have such unfavorable numbers and still be tied with Obama and Mccain.?

What i said doesn't particularly take anything from the diary


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:57:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I took it (none / 0)

as a legitimate question worth discussion.


by fladem on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:06:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

McCain's negatives will go WAY up before November.  Not because of dirty campaigning, but because he supports pretty much every bad policy I can think of.  And, at least for now, the country tends to agree with me as to what bad policies are.


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:49:25 PM EST

This assumes facts not (none / 0)

in evidence.

McCain is vulnerable as hell on the economy, on the War.

We should be up 15.  But we are engaged in a process that is destroying our chances to win in November.


by fladem on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:52:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This assumes facts not (2.00 / 0)

If we start coming together as a party I am very confident we can take down McCain.  But if we keep beating each other to death well into summer we are probably screwed.

Just imagine McCain in a debate against either Obama or Clinton, they would thrash him.


by Xris on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This assumes facts not (none / 0)

What evidence do I need?  His negatives are low, but he's getting a free pass while the country focuses on the Dems.  When our attention turns back to him, he'll have a LOT to explain, but it CAN'T be explained...at least not to the satisfaction of most voters.  

I know this isn't in the numbers above, but it WILL happen.  


No way. No how. No McCain.
by freedom78 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:00:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thank you (none / 0)

for this diary. It should be read by ALL candidate supporters.

Please post this at Dkos.


Washington Woman

Progressive Blue

by kevin22262 on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:52:11 PM EST

OK (2.00 / 1)

I will.


by fladem on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:53:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Done (none / 0)

Here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/27/ 0103/92504?new=true
by fladem on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:18:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

Never say Never....

The media is being overly generous to McCain  -  he's skating while all negative reports are aimed at my energizer bunny and Oprama....

Just remember - about 5 months ago....Giuliani was ahead in all the polls....

where'd that get him????

It's a state by state race and the one riding high now - has far to fall later....


by nikkid on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:54:26 PM EST

Awesome diary fladem (none / 0)

Thank you for a fair diary that raises a relevant point.

Rec'ed and tipped (if applicable)


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 11:57:50 PM EST

Obama is not far behind Clinton (none / 0)

This is shaping up into a huge disaster. The democrats snatch defeat from the jaws of victory once again?

IMO, one of the two candidates needs to drop out--hopefully after PA, latest after NC. At this point it doesn't matter much who it is. A fight to the convention is unacceptable and will almost certainly result in POTUS McCain.


by Korha on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:11:41 AM EST

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

Among Whites her rating is 34 positive 48 negative.

It's actually 51% negative. Obama's rating among white voters is 42-37% positive. So who's in danger of losing white voters in the general election?


by RP McMurphy on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:15:34 AM EST

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

The danger is the fact that she is bottoming out in terms of her popularity, but is still able to pull even with Obama. What will happen when Obama's negativity inevitably rise? We don't know if he really has the same staying power because he is an unknown commodity. Some people may not be fawning over Clinton but they still think she'll make a better president than Obama or McCain would.


by alvic63 on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:24:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

The danger is the fact that she is bottoming out in terms of her popularity, but is still able to pull even with Obama.
Even with Obama among Democratic voters? Well, that's true, but that's never been her problem. Her problem is among independents.
What will happen when Obama's negativity inevitably rise?
See, here's the problem with this line of argument: Obama just weathered the worst week of his campaign rather effortlessly. So I see no reason to believe that his negatives will inevitably rise. Obama's a political talent on par with Bill or Ronald Reagan -- he can take a lickin' and keep on tickin'.
We don't know if he really has the same staying power because he is an unknown commodity.
No, we don't, but it's not as if we can be sure that Clinton would win the general election -- her dangerously high negatives certainly give a reason for concern.
Some people may not be fawning over Clinton but they still think she'll make a better president than Obama or McCain would.
The people who fall into that camp are few and far between. The majority of voters make decisions on things far less cerebral -- like who they like, trust, and identify with. If George W. Bush has taught us anything, it's that likability cannot be disregarded as a minor electoral factor.
by RP McMurphy on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 01:57:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

That WSJ/NBC poll is not credible because it contained oversample of 100 African American.

177/800 are African American, which is 22%. That is an oversampling of 12.4%.

 


by Hurdy Gurdy on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:23:30 AM EST

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

One wonders why would WSJ/NBC publish a rigged poll with a 12.4% oversampling of African American?  


by Hurdy Gurdy on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:26:31 AM EST

Re: Circular Firing Squads and the Latest Polling (none / 0)

The oversampling doesn't seem too much of an issue because I assume any credible pollster would have made adjustments.

The only thing I find interesting about the poll is that it seems they asked the overall electorate of their views on the democratic primary.

Shouldn't the relevant sample include dem and dem leaning voters only.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:31:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

No (none / 0)

the Obama versus Clinton numbers include only Democratic Primary voters.  See the question wording on page 8.


by fladem on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:40:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They adjust for that (none / 0)

the reason for oversampling is to get a sample size big enough to draw valid conclusions.

They take the oversample out for the trail heats and the favorability numbers.


by fladem on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 12:38:56 AM EST

Re: Circular Firing Squads (none / 0)

Honestly?  If you're going to use a poll to decide that Clinton should quit, you should find yourself a poll by an organization that doesn't HATE. CLINTON.

NBC.  HATES.  CLINTON.

They have zero credibility in this matter.


by Sensible on Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 02:32:57 AM EST


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